Sunday, May 24, 2020

Pakistan Plane Crash - Flight PK8303: Possible reasons why it crashed!

A Pakistan International Airlines Airbus A320 (Flight PK8303) with 99 onboard crashed at Jinnah Garden area near Model Colony while landing at Karachi's Jinnah International Airport which is just a few meters away from the crash site.
Out of the 99 onboard, 2 have survived the crash and 11 people on the ground were injured.

It is believed that Flight PK8303 while coming in for landing experienced a landing gear malfunction, which prompted the crew to do a go-around and come in for a second attempt.
On course of the plane's second attempt to land, the airplane lost both the engines and since the altitude of the airplane was too low, a recovery from that was near impossible.

A conversation between the air traffic control and the pilot was published by Pakistani media.
The pilot is heard saying that the plane had lost engines and then the air traffic controller asks whether it is going to carry out a belly landing, to which the pilot replies "Mayday, mayday, mayday".

Taking the perspective of a survivor, the person said that in the first attempt to land, the airplane jolted first and then it came on the runway and was on it for a brief time before the pilot lifted off for a go-around.
The pilot then flew the plane for 10-15 minutes and while attempting to land it the second time, it suddenly crashed.

Taking into consideration, both the general and survivor's perspective, following can be the possible scenarios of this catastrophic event:

Scenario-1

The plane comes in for landing during its first attempt. The pilot lowers the landing gear during approach, but it doesn't deploy perfectly. This somehow gets unnoticed by the crew at first, but they immediately realize about it the moment plane is about to touch the runway. (During this event, it can be possible the engines had scraped the surface of runway). Nevertheless, it prompted the crew to do a go-around and come in for a landing the second time. A possible outcome of scrapping of the engine is damage to oil lines required to cool the engine. This made the engine to overheat to its limits which prompted the system to enable a shut-down which lead to zero thrust and the pilot tried to keep the plane in the air, but the speed decreased rapidly leading to a stall. From the CCTV footage, it can be clearly seen that the airplane was highly pitched up signifying a stall.

Scenario-2

Similar to the 1st scenario, the only difference being due to scrapping of engines, the engines might have taken a foreign object, which eventually lead to a compressor surge at a very crucial phase. This prompted the system to shut down the engine followed by the same sequence of events as in 1st scenario.

Scenario-3

The last scenario which is very unlikely is the fuel exhaustion. Maybe a wrong calculation of fuel estimation which lead to this catastrophic event. It can be possible that fuel was enough to do a 1st attempt landing but wasn't enough to do a 10-15 minute go-around and when the plane came for its final approach the fuel got exhausted leading to engine shut-down followed by the same sequence of event as in 1st scenario.

What do you think could be the possible reason of the Pakistan Plane Crash?

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